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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sun 24 Aug 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

50%

FC Porto

2.01

25%

Draw

3.94

25%

Casa Pia

4.02

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.8%

Home win

2 – 1

9.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.56

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.58

1.02

Casa Pia xG

50%
25%
25%
FC PortoDrawCasa Pia

2.01

50%

Home win

3.94

25%

Draw

4.02

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.98

49%

BTTS No

2.02

Clean Sheet

36%

FC Porto

2.78

21%

Casa Pia

4.75

Win to Nil

18%

FC Porto

5.60

5%

Casa Pia

19.10

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.6 7.7 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.1
1 11.8 12.1 6.2 2.1 0.5 0.1
2 9.2 9.4 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 4.8 4.9 2.5 0.9 0.2
4 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.559
λ Away (xG) 1.024
Total xG 2.583
League avg home goals 1.382
League avg away goals 1.209
FC Porto attack strength 1.297
FC Porto defence strength 0.841
Casa Pia attack strength 1.007
Casa Pia defence strength 0.870
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 36 / 36