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Dominant FC Porto run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Boavista.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Boavista 4-0 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.96 xG and Boavista 0.77 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Porto beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.42 / defence 0.66 against Boavista attack 1.03 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 65% | Draw 21% | Boavista 14%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 57%, Boavista 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Boavista's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights