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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Porto.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat FC Porto 1-4 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 1.52 xG and Benfica 1.10 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.24 / defence 0.71 against Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 47% | Draw 26% | Benfica 27%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 52%, Benfica 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Benfica's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Porto 2.10 PPG, Benfica 2.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights