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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Sun 6 Apr 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

47%

FC Porto

2.13

26%

Draw

3.90

27%

Benfica

3.65

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.1%

Home win

2 – 1

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.52

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.61

1.10

Benfica xG

47%
26%
27%
FC PortoDrawBenfica

2.13

47%

Home win

3.90

26%

Draw

3.65

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.92

48%

BTTS No

2.08

Clean Sheet

33%

FC Porto

2.99

22%

Benfica

4.56

Win to Nil

16%

FC Porto

6.37

6%

Benfica

16.65

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.3 8.0 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1
1 11.1 12.2 6.7 2.4 0.7 0.1
2 8.4 9.2 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 4.3 4.7 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.518
λ Away (xG) 1.096
Total xG 2.614
League avg home goals 1.334
League avg away goals 1.174
FC Porto attack strength 1.241
FC Porto defence strength 0.710
Benfica attack strength 1.315
Benfica defence strength 0.918
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 61