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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Alverca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Alverca 1-0 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 2.07 xG and Alverca 0.72 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Porto fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.22 / defence 0.71 against Alverca attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Porto 69% | Draw 19% | Alverca 12%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 58%, Alverca 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Porto's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.

Alverca's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.65 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights