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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Sat 2 May 2026

20:30

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

69%

FC Porto

1.45

19%

Draw

5.18

12%

Alverca

8.50

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

13.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

12.7%

Home win

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.07

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.79

0.72

Alverca xG

69%
19%
12%
FC PortoDrawAlverca

1.45

69%

Home win

5.18

19%

Draw

8.50

12%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.24

55%

BTTS No

1.81

Clean Sheet

49%

FC Porto

2.05

13%

Alverca

7.93

Win to Nil

34%

FC Porto

2.97

1%

Alverca

67.40

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1
1 12.7 9.1 3.3 0.8 0.1
2 13.2 9.5 3.4 0.8 0.1
3 9.1 6.5 2.3 0.6 0.1
4 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
5 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.071
λ Away (xG) 0.717
Total xG 2.788
League avg home goals 1.486
League avg away goals 1.167
FC Porto attack strength 1.220
FC Porto defence strength 0.713
Alverca attack strength 0.861
Alverca defence strength 1.143
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 65 / 31