🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out Farense 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat Farense 1-2 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 0.76 xG and Santa Clara 0.86 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.64 / defence 0.98 against Santa Clara attack 0.72 / defence 0.91, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 29% | Draw 35% | Santa Clara 36%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 39%, Santa Clara 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Santa Clara's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights