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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rio Ave defy the odds to beat Farense 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat Farense 1-2 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.21 xG and Rio Ave 0.92 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rio Ave outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against Rio Ave attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 42% | Draw 31% | Rio Ave 27%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Rio Ave win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 48%, Rio Ave 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Farense 1.00 PPG, Rio Ave 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rio Ave win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights