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Nacional cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Farense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Farense 0-2 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.27 xG and Nacional 0.95 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Farense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Nacional outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Nacional attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 43% | Draw 30% | Nacional 27%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Nacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 40%, Nacional 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nacional's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Farense 0.75 PPG, Nacional 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights