🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Farense at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Nacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Nacional make the trip to Estádio de São Lúis to face Farense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Form

Farense (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Nacional's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nacional's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Farense against 1.10 for Nacional. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Farense lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Nacional winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Farense — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Nacional — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 45% versus Nacional 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Farense 40% | Nacional 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.27 xG and Nacional 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.803 / defence 1.193 | Nacional attack 0.674 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.189. Data: 54 Farense games / 20 Nacional games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Farense 43% | Draw 30% | Nacional 27%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Nacional 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Farense are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Farense if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Farense 50% | Nacional 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights