Farense 0-2 Nacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Nacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nacional make the trip to Estádio de São Lúis to face Farense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Farense (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Nacional's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nacional's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Farense against 1.10 for Nacional. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Farense lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Nacional winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Farense — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Nacional — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 45% versus Nacional 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Farense 40% | Nacional 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.27 xG and Nacional 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.803 / defence 1.193 | Nacional attack 0.674 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.189. Data: 54 Farense games / 20 Nacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 43% | Draw 30% | Nacional 27%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Nacional 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Farense are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Farense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Farense 50% | Nacional 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Nacional | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 43% | Draw 30% | Nacional 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Farense 1.27 / Nacional 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.803 / def 1.193 | Nacional attack 0.674 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Farense (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Farense xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Nacional xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Nacional kick off?
Farense vs Nacional kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Nacional?
Farense 0 - 2 Nacional.
Where is Farense vs Nacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Nacional part of?
Farense vs Nacional is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Nacional?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 43% chance of winning, Nacional a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Nacional?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Farense and Nacional will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Nacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Nacional?
Record (1 meetings): Farense 0W | Draws 0 | Nacional 1W.
What form are Farense and Nacional in?
Farense (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Nacional (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Farense's attack rating (0.80) and Nacional's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nacional's attack (0.67x) against Farense's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.32
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Farense xG
Total xG
2.22
0.95
Nacional xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Nacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Farense and Nacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Farense and 0.95 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Nacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Farense come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 6D 11L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nacional sit at 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Farense against 0.95 for Nacional. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Farense's home form reads 2W 1D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Nacional have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nacional's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Farense are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Nacional are on 0.85 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
Nacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Nacional in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 3W 6D 11L in their last 20 games (0.75 PPG), while Nacional have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Nacional away?
Farense's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 0.78 PPG; Nacional away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Farense or Nacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Farense have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Nacional in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Farense
0
Draws
2
Nacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Nacional?
From 2 meetings on record, Farense have won 0, Nacional have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Nacional last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Farense 0-2 Nacional.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Nacional?
Nacional have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Nacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 44%, Nacional 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Farense) and 33% (Nacional).
On the defensive side: Farense have failed to score in 33% of games; Nacional in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Nacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Nacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Farense's recent matches and 33% of Nacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs Nacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Farense's recent games and 33% of Nacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Nacional tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Nacional in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nacional cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Farense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nacional beat Farense 0-2 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.27 xG and Nacional 0.95 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Farense fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Nacional outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.80 / defence 1.19 against Nacional attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 43% | Draw 30% | Nacional 27%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Nacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 40%, Nacional 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nacional's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.75 PPG, Nacional 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.