Farense 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host GIL Vicente at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Farense have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 0.90 PPG versus GIL Vicente's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Farense have won 1, GIL Vicente 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–2 with GIL Vicente winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Farense in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 53% versus GIL Vicente 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 49% | GIL Vicente 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.772 / defence 1.091 | GIL Vicente attack 0.919 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.089. Farense's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GIL Vicente bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Farense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Farense games / 47 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 48% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 27%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | GIL Vicente 3.70. Farense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Farense 50% | GIL Vicente 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 48% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Farense 1.55 / GIL Vicente 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.772 / def 1.091 | GIL Vicente attack 0.919 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Farense (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.09
GIL Vicente xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Farense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Farense 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Farense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Farense vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 48% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Farense and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and GIL Vicente?
Record (2 meetings): Farense 1W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Farense and GIL Vicente in?
Farense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.94
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Farense xG
Total xG
2.64
1.09
GIL Vicente xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Farense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Farense and 1.09 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Farense come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 10D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.04 PPG from 47 outings (12W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 0.98 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Farense's home form reads 8W 4D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 0.57 points per game from 23 outings (3W 4D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.23 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or GIL Vicente away?
Farense's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.22 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Farense's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Farense
0
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and GIL Vicente?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Farense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when GIL Vicente 1-0 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 48%, GIL Vicente 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Farense) and 61% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Farense have failed to score in 26% of games; GIL Vicente in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Farense's recent matches and 48% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Farense's matches and 61% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Farense and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Farense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.09 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Farense fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against GIL Vicente attack 0.92 / defence 1.42, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 48% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 27%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 49%, GIL Vicente 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.98 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.