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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Farense defy the odds to beat Famalicao 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Farense beat Famalicao 2-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 0.78 xG and Famalicao 1.31 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Farense beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.54 / defence 1.01 against Famalicao attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 22% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 49%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Farense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 46%, Famalicao 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Famalicao's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Farense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Farense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights