🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Farense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Farense and Casa Pia finished level at 0-0 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.00 xG and Casa Pia 1.39 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Farense fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.62 / defence 1.12 against Casa Pia attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 27% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 46%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 49%, Casa Pia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Casa Pia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Farense 0.89 PPG, Casa Pia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights