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Prediction vindicated as Boavista edge out Farense 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boavista beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 0.80 xG and Boavista 0.98 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.58 / defence 1.01 against Boavista attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 29% | Draw 33% | Boavista 38%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 48%, Boavista 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Boavista's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Farense 0.92 PPG, Boavista 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights