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Shock result as AVS defy the odds to beat Farense 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AVS beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.03 xG and AVS 0.95 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Farense fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against AVS attack 0.69 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 36% | Draw 33% | AVS 32%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual AVS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 40%, AVS 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AVS's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AVS arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights