Farense 0-1 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs AVS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio de São Lúis plays host to Farense versus AVS in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Farense (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Farense's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Estádio de São Lúis this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AVS have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AVS away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Farense, 0.90 for AVS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Farense 0W, AVS 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Farense — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
AVS — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 44% versus AVS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Farense 40% | AVS 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.03 xG and AVS 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.684 / defence 1.219 | AVS attack 0.692 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.129. Farense's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Farense games / 23 AVS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 36% | Draw 33% | AVS 32%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | AVS 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Farense are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Farense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Farense 30% | AVS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 36% | Draw 33% | AVS 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Farense 1.03 / AVS 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.684 / def 1.219 | AVS attack 0.692 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Farense (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Farense xG
Expected Goals
0.95
AVS xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs AVS kick off?
Farense vs AVS kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs AVS?
Farense 0 - 1 AVS.
Where is Farense vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs AVS part of?
Farense vs AVS is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 36% chance of winning, AVS a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Farense and AVS will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and AVS?
Record (1 meetings): Farense 0W | Draws 1 | AVS 0W.
What form are Farense and AVS in?
Farense (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. AVS (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Farense's attack at 0.68x the league average against AVS's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AVS's attack (0.69x) against Farense's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
36%
2.79
33%
3.07
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Farense xG
Total xG
1.98
0.95
AVS xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Farense and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Farense and 0.95 for AVS, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs AVS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Farense come into this having played 25 games, going 3W 7D 15L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AVS sit at 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (5W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AVS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Farense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Farense's home form reads 2W 1D 9L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.58 PPG return.
Away from home, AVS have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (1W 6D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Farense are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 0.92 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AVS in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
AVS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and AVS in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 3W 7D 15L in their last 25 games (0.64 PPG), while AVS have gone 5W 11D 9L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or AVS away?
AVS's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 0.58 PPG; AVS away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Farense
1
Draws
1
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and AVS?
From 2 meetings on record, Farense have won 0, AVS have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and AVS last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Farense 0-1 AVS.
Who has won more matches between Farense and AVS?
AVS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 42%, AVS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Farense) and 42% (AVS).
On the defensive side: Farense have failed to score in 42% of games; AVS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play AVS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Farense's recent matches and 67% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs AVS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Farense's recent games and 42% of AVS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and AVS tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AVS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AVS defy the odds to beat Farense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AVS beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.03 xG and AVS 0.95 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Farense fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against AVS attack 0.69 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 36% | Draw 33% | AVS 32%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual AVS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 40%, AVS 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AVS's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AVS arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.