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Dominant Famalicao run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Tondela 3-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.86 xG and Tondela 0.79 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.09 / defence 0.89 against Tondela attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 63% | Draw 22% | Tondela 15%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 33%, Tondela 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Tondela's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 61% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Tondela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights