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Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Famalicao 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.20 xG and Sporting CP 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.07 / defence 0.72 against Sporting CP attack 1.44 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 35% | Draw 27% | Sporting CP 37%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 50%, Sporting CP 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Sporting CP's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights