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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Famalicao and SC Braga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao and SC Braga finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.92 xG and SC Braga 0.90 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.11 / defence 0.72 against SC Braga attack 1.03 / defence 0.67, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 34% | Draw 33% | SC Braga 33%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 47%, SC Braga 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights