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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Moreirense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Moreirense 2-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.02 xG and Moreirense 1.03 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Moreirense landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.66 / defence 0.90 against Moreirense attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 34% | Draw 32% | Moreirense 34%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 43%, Moreirense 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Moreirense's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.25 PPG, Moreirense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights