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Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao and Guimaraes finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.91 xG and Guimaraes 1.02 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Guimaraes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.68 / defence 0.96 against Guimaraes attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 31% | Draw 33% | Guimaraes 37%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 44%, Guimaraes 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guimaraes's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights