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Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 3, as Famalicao and GIL Vicente drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.41 xG and GIL Vicente 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.4 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.20 / defence 0.78 against GIL Vicente attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 47% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 53%, GIL Vicente 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights