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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Famalicao 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Famalicao 0-1 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.93 xG and FC Porto 1.26 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.01 / defence 0.69 against FC Porto attack 1.40 / defence 0.69, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 25% | Draw 33% | FC Porto 42%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 46%, FC Porto 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Porto's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Porto (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights