🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Farense defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Farense beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.99 xG and Farense 0.71 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Farense outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against Farense attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 41% | Draw 34% | Farense 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Farense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 44%, Farense 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Farense's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.27 PPG, Farense 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Farense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights