🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao and Estrela finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.21 xG and Estrela 0.87 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Estrela landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against Estrela attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 43% | Draw 31% | Estrela 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 46%, Estrela 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estrela's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.19 PPG, Estrela 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights