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Dominant Famalicao run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Estoril 4-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.34 xG and Estoril 1.16 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estoril landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against Estoril attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 40% | Draw 28% | Estoril 32%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 47%, Estoril 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Estoril's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.43 PPG, Estoril 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights