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Dominant Famalicao run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Estoril 3-0 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.52 xG and Estoril 1.21 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estoril landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.99 / defence 0.81 against Estoril attack 1.26 / defence 1.18, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 44% | Draw 25% | Estoril 30%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 45%, Estoril 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Estoril's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.32 PPG, Estoril 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights