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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat AVS 3-1 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 2.62 xG and AVS 0.90 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.12 / defence 0.83 against AVS attack 0.88 / defence 1.52, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 74% | Draw 15% | AVS 11%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 48%, AVS 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

AVS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights