🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Famalicao run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat AVS 4-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.09 xG and AVS 0.59 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.77 / defence 0.78 against AVS attack 0.67 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 47% | Draw 33% | AVS 20%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 43%, AVS 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

AVS's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.32 PPG, AVS 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm. AVS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights