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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Alverca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Alverca 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.73 xG and Alverca 0.80 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alverca landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Alverca attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 59% | Draw 23% | Alverca 17%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 39%, Alverca 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Alverca's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights