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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Sat 16 May 2026

20:30

Venue

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Famalicao Win

59%

Famalicao

1.68

23%

Draw

4.26

17%

Alverca

5.85

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.8%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

11.9%

Home win

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.73

Famalicao xG

Total xG

2.53

0.80

Alverca xG

59%
23%
17%
FamalicaoDrawAlverca

1.68

59%

Home win

4.26

23%

Draw

5.85

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.20

55%

BTTS No

1.83

Clean Sheet

45%

Famalicao

2.23

18%

Alverca

5.64

Win to Nil

27%

Famalicao

3.75

3%

Alverca

32.95

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.0 6.4 2.6 0.7 0.1
1 13.8 11.0 4.4 1.2 0.2
2 11.9 9.5 3.8 1.0 0.2
3 6.9 5.5 2.2 0.6 0.1
4 3.0 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.729
λ Away (xG) 0.802
Total xG 2.531
League avg home goals 1.456
League avg away goals 1.136
Famalicao attack strength 1.079
Famalicao defence strength 0.868
Alverca attack strength 0.814
Alverca defence strength 1.100
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 67 / 33