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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estrela and SC Braga share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela and SC Braga finished level at 3-3 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 0.95 xG and SC Braga 1.36 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Estrela beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Braga outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against SC Braga attack 1.17 / defence 0.77, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 25% | Draw 29% | SC Braga 46%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 38%, SC Braga 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

SC Braga's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights