🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Rio Ave defy the odds to beat Estrela 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat Estrela 1-2 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.31 xG and Rio Ave 1.22 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Rio Ave attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 37% | Draw 31% | Rio Ave 33%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Rio Ave win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 31%, Rio Ave 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.86 PPG, Rio Ave 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rio Ave win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights