🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Estrela edge out Rio Ave 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela beat Rio Ave 1-0 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.73 xG and Rio Ave 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rio Ave landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Rio Ave attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 56% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 20%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 48%, Rio Ave 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Rio Ave's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.94 PPG, Rio Ave 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights