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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estrela and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela and GIL Vicente finished level at 2-2 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.16 xG and GIL Vicente 1.47 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Estrela beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against GIL Vicente attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 29% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 43%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 40%, GIL Vicente 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.91 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights