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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Estrela 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Estrela 1-2 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 0.95 xG and FC Porto 1.75 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against FC Porto attack 1.37 / defence 0.69, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 20% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 56%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 41%, FC Porto 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

FC Porto's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights