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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estrela cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Porto.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela beat FC Porto 2-0 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 0.86 xG and FC Porto 1.46 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Estrela beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Porto landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against FC Porto attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 22% | Draw 27% | FC Porto 51%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Estrela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 41%, FC Porto 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Porto's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Estrela winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights