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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 31

Kick-off

Sat 26 Apr 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Gomes

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

22%

Estrela

4.51

27%

Draw

3.75

51%

FC Porto

1.95

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

14.4%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

0 – 2

10.5%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.86

Estrela xG

Total xG

2.32

1.46

FC Porto xG

22%
27%
51%
EstrelaDrawFC Porto

4.51

22%

Home win

3.75

27%

Draw

1.95

51%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.26

56%

BTTS No

1.79

Clean Sheet

23%

Estrela

4.30

42%

FC Porto

2.36

Win to Nil

5%

Estrela

19.37

22%

FC Porto

4.62

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.8 14.4 10.5 5.1 1.9 0.5
1 8.5 12.3 9.0 4.4 1.6 0.5
2 3.6 5.3 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.2
3 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.860
λ Away (xG) 1.458
Total xG 2.318
League avg home goals 1.243
League avg away goals 1.196
Estrela attack strength 0.804
Estrela defence strength 1.119
FC Porto attack strength 1.090
FC Porto defence strength 0.861
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 64