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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Farense edge out Estrela 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Farense beat Estrela 0-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.22 xG and Farense 1.42 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estrela fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Farense attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 32% | Draw 26% | Farense 42%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 42%, Farense 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Farense's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.95 PPG, Farense 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Farense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights