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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sun 13 Apr 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio José Gomes

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Farense Win

32%

Estrela

3.09

26%

Draw

3.85

42%

Farense

2.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.1%

Away win

1 – 2

8.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.22

Estrela xG

Total xG

2.65

1.42

Farense xG

32%
26%
42%
EstrelaDrawFarense

3.09

32%

Home win

3.85

26%

Draw

2.40

42%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.87

46%

BTTS No

2.15

Clean Sheet

24%

Estrela

4.15

29%

Farense

3.40

Win to Nil

8%

Estrela

12.82

12%

Farense

8.17

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1 10.1 7.2 3.4 1.2 0.3
1 8.7 12.3 8.8 4.2 1.5 0.4
2 5.3 7.6 5.4 2.5 0.9 0.3
3 2.2 3.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.224
λ Away (xG) 1.423
Total xG 2.647
League avg home goals 1.278
League avg away goals 1.175
Estrela attack strength 0.860
Estrela defence strength 1.172
Farense attack strength 1.034
Farense defence strength 1.113
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 62