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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Mon 11 May 2026

20:15

Venue

Estádio José Gomes

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Famalicao Win

34%

Estrela

2.94

27%

Draw

3.66

39%

Famalicao

2.59

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.0%

Away win

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.18

Estrela xG

Total xG

2.45

1.27

Famalicao xG

34%
27%
39%
EstrelaDrawFamalicao

2.94

34%

Home win

3.66

27%

Draw

2.59

39%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.01

50%

BTTS No

1.99

Clean Sheet

28%

Estrela

3.56

31%

Famalicao

3.24

Win to Nil

10%

Estrela

10.45

12%

Famalicao

8.38

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.7 11.0 7.0 3.0 0.9 0.2
1 10.2 12.9 8.2 3.5 1.1 0.3
2 6.0 7.6 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2
3 2.3 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.175
λ Away (xG) 1.270
Total xG 2.445
League avg home goals 1.479
League avg away goals 1.137
Estrela attack strength 0.934
Estrela defence strength 1.148
Famalicao attack strength 0.973
Famalicao defence strength 0.850
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66