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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estoril run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Estrela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Estrela 0-5 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.86 xG and Estoril 1.35 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Estrela fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Estoril outscored their 1.35 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Estoril attack 1.02 / defence 1.28, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 50% | Draw 23% | Estoril 28%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 39%, Estoril 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estoril's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.94 PPG, Estoril 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights