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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estrela run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela beat Casa Pia 4-0 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.21 xG and Casa Pia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Estrela beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Casa Pia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.84 / defence 1.29 against Casa Pia attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 39% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 32%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 42%, Casa Pia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.

Casa Pia's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.90 PPG, Casa Pia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights