Estrela vs Benfica – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estrela face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estrela host Benfica at in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estrela stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Benfica — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Estrela.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Estrela in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 52% versus Benfica 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estrela 57% | Benfica 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.19 xG and Benfica 2.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 1.060 / defence 1.060 | Benfica attack 1.608 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.350. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.608 — the away xG of 2.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Estrela games / 42 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 19% | Draw 19% | Benfica 62%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 5.26 | Draw 5.26 | Benfica 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estrela 50% | Benfica 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 19% | Draw 19% | Benfica 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Estrela 1.19 / Benfica 2.30 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 1.060 / def 1.060 | Benfica attack 1.608 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Benfica (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
2.30
Benfica xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Benfica kick off?
Estrela vs Benfica is scheduled to kick off at 20:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026.
What competition is Estrela vs Benfica part of?
Estrela vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 19% chance of winning, Benfica a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Estrela and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
Record (6 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 6W.
What form are Estrela and Benfica in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Benfica (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estrela's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 2.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
19%
5.39
19%
5.22
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Estrela xG
Total xG
3.49
2.30
Benfica xG
5.39
19%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
10%
9.97
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
2%
53.77
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Estrela and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Estrela and 2.30 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estrela's recent record stands at 8W 16D 18L from 42 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 1L across 42 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estrela heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 5W 8D 8L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 15W 5D 1L across 21 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 8W 16D 18L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Benfica have gone 29W 12D 1L in their last 42 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.10 PPG; Benfica away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Estrela or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Benfica in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estrela and Benfica runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estrela's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Estrela
0
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Benfica have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Benfica 4-0 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 48%, Benfica 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Estrela and 76% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 48%; Estrela have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Estrela's recent matches and 52% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Estrela's matches and 76% of Benfica's.
Do Estrela and Benfica tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Benfica in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.