Benfica vs Famalicao – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Famalicao travel to to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Monday 30 November 2026, 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica at this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Famalicao — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Benfica hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Famalicao, with 2 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Benfica a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Famalicao trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 57% versus Famalicao 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 74% | Famalicao 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.55 xG and Famalicao 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.339 / defence 0.878 | Famalicao attack 1.096 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.364. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Benfica games / 42 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 43% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 32%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Famalicao 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 60% | Famalicao 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 30 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 43% | Draw 25% | Famalicao 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Benfica 1.55 / Famalicao 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.339 / def 0.878 | Famalicao attack 1.096 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Benfica (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Famalicao xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Famalicao kick off?
Benfica vs Famalicao is scheduled to kick off at 20:15 on Monday 30 November 2026.
What competition is Benfica vs Famalicao part of?
Benfica vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 43% chance of winning, Famalicao a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Benfica and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Famalicao?
Record (10 meetings): Benfica 6W | Draws 2 | Famalicao 2W.
What form are Benfica and Famalicao in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.34x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.04
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.86
1.31
Famalicao xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Benfica and 1.31 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 42 games, going 29W 12D 1L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.50 PPG from 42 outings (16W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Famalicao — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 14W 7D 0L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.24 scored and 0.95 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Famalicao's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Famalicao in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 29W 12D 1L in their last 42 games (2.36 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 16W 15D 11L in their last 42 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Famalicao away?
Benfica's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.33 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Benfica or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Famalicao in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Benfica
2
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 6, Famalicao have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Famalicao 2-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Famalicao?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 62%, Famalicao 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Benfica) and 33% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Famalicao in 38%; Famalicao in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Benfica's recent matches and 38% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Benfica's recent games and 33% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Famalicao tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.