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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estrela 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Estrela 0-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.10 xG and Benfica 1.45 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estrela fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Benfica attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 45%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 32%, Benfica 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Benfica's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights