Estrela 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estrela face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estrela host Benfica at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estrela stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Estrela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estrela's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Estádio José Gomes this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benfica — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benfica haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Estrela.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Estrela in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 32% versus Benfica 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 32% | Benfica 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.10 xG and Benfica 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.895 / defence 1.008 | Benfica attack 1.226 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.171. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Estrela games / 34 Benfica games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Estrela 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 45%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 2.22. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 30% | Benfica 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Estrela 1.10 / Benfica 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.895 / def 1.008 | Benfica attack 1.226 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Benfica (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Benfica xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Benfica kick off?
Estrela vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Estrela 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Estrela vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Benfica part of?
Estrela vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 29% chance of winning, Benfica a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Estrela and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
Record (4 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Estrela and Benfica in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estrela's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.81
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.55
1.45
Benfica xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Estrela and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Estrela and 1.45 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estrela's recent record stands at 7W 8D 19L from 34 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estrela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 25W 5D 4L across 34 games — 2.35 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. Benfica haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estrela heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 11W 3D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.47 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Early Season
Benfica
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 7W 8D 19L in their last 34 games (0.85 PPG), while Benfica have gone 25W 5D 4L in their last 34 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.12 PPG; Benfica away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Estrela or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Benfica in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estrela and Benfica runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estrela's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Estrela
0
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Benfica have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Benfica 4-0 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 41%, Benfica 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Estrela) and 53% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 35%; Estrela have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Estrela's recent matches and 53% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Estrela's recent games and 53% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and Benfica tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Benfica in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estrela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estrela 0-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.10 xG and Benfica 1.45 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estrela fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Benfica attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 29% | Draw 26% | Benfica 45%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 32%, Benfica 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.