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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estrela run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela beat AVS 3-0 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.43 xG and AVS 1.30 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Estrela beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AVS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against AVS attack 0.96 / defence 1.41, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estrela 39% | Draw 28% | AVS 33%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 30%, AVS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estrela's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not.

AVS's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estrela 0.82 PPG, AVS 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights