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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio José Gomes

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Estrela Win

39%

Estrela

2.57

28%

Draw

3.62

33%

AVS

3.00

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.3%

Home win

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

Estrela xG

Total xG

2.73

1.30

AVS xG

39%
28%
33%
EstrelaDrawAVS

2.57

39%

Home win

3.62

28%

Draw

3.00

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.77

44%

BTTS No

2.29

Clean Sheet

27%

Estrela

3.68

24%

AVS

4.16

Win to Nil

11%

Estrela

9.44

8%

AVS

12.48

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.5 8.5 5.5 2.4 0.8 0.2
1 9.3 12.1 7.9 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.6 8.6 5.6 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 3.2 4.1 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.426
λ Away (xG) 1.303
Total xG 2.729
League avg home goals 1.290
League avg away goals 1.233
Estrela attack strength 0.787
Estrela defence strength 1.106
AVS attack strength 0.956
AVS defence strength 1.405
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40